Speaking to ANI, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general, Meteorology, India Meteorological Department, said quantitatively, the seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country during the southwest monsoon, as a whole, is likely to be 96 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of +- 5 per cent (Normal). Long-period average rainfall over the country, as a whole, based on data from 1971-2020 is 87 cm, added the IMD official.
It is based on both statistical and dynamic models used by IMD.
La Nina conditions have changed to Neutral conditions over the equatorial Pacific region, the top IMD official said, adding that the latest climate model forecast indicates that El Nino conditions are likely to develop during the monsoon season.
The impact of El Nino may be felt during the second half of the monsoon season, he added.
All El Nino years are not bad monsoon years, he said, informing that about 40 per cent of the EL Nino years in the past(1951-2022) were years with normal or above-normal monsoon rainfall.
"Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole IOD conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean and the latest climate models forecast indicates that positive IOD conditions are likely to develop during the southwest monsoon season. Positive IOD is good for southwest monsoon over the country," Mohapatra said.
The rainfall in Eurasia was below normal from December 2022 to March 2023, he informed further, adding that lower snow cover over the Northern Hemisphere as well as Eurasia during winter and spring is favourable for the subsequent southwest monsoon rainfall over India.
